COVID-19 in Australia - Understanding Exponential Growth

Update: Since the time of writing, Australia has done an amazing job stepping up the response to COVID-19 and we are looking to be on a healthy flat curve trajectory now. Well done and keep social distancing! This site will continue updating with daily data.

 

My name is Serge Rogov and I've been working as a data scientist for 7 years. I made this page because I believe that Australian mainstream news messaging is inconsistent with the reported case figures and first-hand accounts from colleagues working the front lines or the education sector. Exponential growth is a difficult concept to grasp. One looks at the numbers and they seem reasonable, so you take measured action. But in 3 days those numbers double, and in another 3 days they double again. Suddenly 100 cases becomes 500 and then 2000. The only way to control exponential phenomena is to get ahead of the curve. The charts below indicate that we are only days away from reaching a critical point where the cases will exceed the capacity of our healthcare system.

My intent is not to incite fear, but urgency - we must act before we reach the tipping point. Please, everyone, follow tried-and-tested social distancing right now, as other countries have done with great success. Let's all work together to overcome this crisis.

COVID-19 in Australia - National Short Term Forecast
Confirmed infected
COVID-19 in Australia - National Mid Term Forecast
Confirmed infected This curve is not set in stone. It will only eventuate if we fail to reduce transmission rate. Our actions in the coming days and weeks can influence it and divert the curve away from the ICU saturation threshold.

Forecast Case Count
Date Predicted Actual Error

Daily New Cases

Assumptions